Monday, February 24, 2014

Best Editing or Least Editing...How will 2014 Oscars Fare?

Last year I went public with the theory that that longest movie each years seems to win the Oscar for Best Film Editing each year.  It's as if the Academy Awards were honoring the film with the least amount of editing.  That has never seemed right to me but I had nobody to tell.  Until now.

Looking at my stats from last year's post, the longest film was more than twice as likely to win the Oscar (at 43%) than it would be by chance (20%).  In other words, nearly every other "Best Edited" film is also the longest.  This is way more than should be expected by chance and I seemed to really be on to something.  Of course, last year the Academy snubbed me by letting a much shorter film win.  But I don't yet feel discredited.  The Academy will surely revert back to the mean soon.

Taking the length of each with data from Oscar.com and IMDB.com, we see the following for this year's films:
  1. American Hustle (138 minutes) -- Should win the Oscar!
  2. Captain Phillips and 12 Years a Slave (tie at 134 minutes)
  3. Dallas Buyer's Club (117 minutes)
  4. Gravity (91 minutes)
So what does this year portend? Check in to the Oscar's Sunday night to see, and come back here when the longest film wins yet again.

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